Lies and Statistics

Normally this would have been on my News Weakly for this week, but it was a bit too long for that vehicle.

The story is out. A report released by a group called the Arizona Public Health Association claims that COVID is now the leading cause of death in Arizona. The report is based on the Arizona Department of Health Services Data Dashboard for COVID deaths and the CDC WONDER page for causes of death. Beware, Arizonans; COVID is lurking at your door.

As it turns out, the CDC does not have data for 2020 (or 2021), so the report based its evaluation on earlier data, assuming no change. Of course, lots of sources are reporting that deaths from these other causes (like heart disease, cancer, suicide, and drug overdose) skyrocketed in 2020 largely because of COVID fear. The CDC itself had a report on that. The CDC reported a 15.9% increase in deaths in 2020 in all areas. That information didn't make it to this analysis. I wonder why?

So, while the CDC still lists heart disease as the #1 cause of death in Arizona (and the U.S.), this report is much more reliable. Why? As it turns out (buried in the story above), the executive director of the Arizona Public Health Association has been a staunch opponent of Arizona's handling of the pandemic. Is it possible there is an ulterior motive for this report?

The actual data available says that in 2019 Arizona saw 12560 deaths from heart disease alone and 24500 with heart disease as a contributor. In 2019, there were 12485 cancer deaths in Arizona. Moving to 2020, Arizona saw 13237 deaths from COVID. If the CDC is right and there was a 15% increase in deaths in 2020, that would put heart disease deaths around 14500 and cancer deaths upwards of 14400, both more than COVID. (If we just used a 10% increase, those numbers would be 13800 and 13700 respectively, still more than COVID.) Taking into account the CDC reports and the Arizona Department of Health Services data and so forth -- you know, actual facts -- it turns out that the Arizona Public Health Association is fibbing. It turns out that this story is a lie and those who are propogating it are propogating a lie. You can pick a possible motive for the lie, but it appears to be a lie.

I don't suppose anyone might think there was ulterior motives in this report, would they? Nah! That can't be. This wouldn't fall under the category of "misinformation," would it? Surely not! "Misinformation" is defined today as "the stuff that contradicts what we claim to be facts." Ultimately, what they are not telling anyone is that the leading cause of death worldwide is actually abortion, accounting for 42 million unborn babies in 2020. But, sure, let's go with COVID on this. Much better press.